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After 5 consecutive weekly increases that saw the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage climb by more than 50 basis points, interest rates held steady at 3.55% last week. That is almost 100 basis points higher than we started 2021 with. Looking forward, 10-year bond rates, persistent inflation, and recent policy announcements by the Federal Reserve suggest that this reprieve will likely be temporary and rates are expected to resume their upward trend in the coming weeks, which should fuel additional urgency amongst would-be homebuyers over the near term.

After a turbulent start to the year, California’s economy and housing market got a bit of a respite from the volatility. Rates held steady after big increases, the pandemic is finally showing signs of improvement, and the labor markets continue to give reason for cautious optimism. However, the Federal Reserve made announcements last week that will likely weigh on our clients and our industry moving forward as the outlook for rates deteriorates slightly from original projections.

Recently released data from the 2020 American Community Survey shows that the anecdotal “renewed passion for homeownership” has been borne out by the facts. Overall, homeownership increased to 56.1% in 2020 from 54.9% in 2019. Notably, this increase was shared across all major ethnic groups with the largest gains among Latino and Asian populations, though Black and White homeownership also rose. These numbers should be interpreted with some caution given the effect of the pandemic on Census data collection efforts, but the direction of the change likely remains valid nonetheless.

Even though the pace of sales was falling last month, December solidified 2021 as the best year for existing single-family home sales in over a decade. With an annualized pace of more than 444,000 units, home sales were 7.9% ahead of 2020, which also rose by 3.5% from 2019. That marks the best year for closed transactions since 2009. Median prices also set a new record, coming in just shy of $800,000 for the year. Despite ongoing challenges with the pandemic, a labor market that has yet to fully recover, and interest rates that rose gradually throughout the year, buyer demand remains strong by pre-crisis standards although limited supply is expected to weigh on sales in 2022.

The last week of economic and market data shows that housing continues to be the bright spot in an otherwise turbulent economy. Recently released data shows that 2021 was the best year for California’s housing market since the recovery from the Great Recession began over a decade ago. Realtors are optimistic and the state continues to see signs of broader economic improvement. However, rising rates and their impact on buyer demand, have joined a lack of inventory as the key headwinds to home sales in 2022.